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The GOP's Libertarian Problem

    Nader wasn't the only spoiler.

By NR's John J. Miller & Ramesh Ponnuru
March 19, 2001 2:25 p.m.

    on what may be the most underreported political phenomenon of the last two election cycles: Libertarian Party candidates are seriously hurting Republicans.

    While much has been said about Ralph Nader arguably keeping Al Gore out of the White House -- the Green Party nominee drew more than 97,000 votes in Florida, for example -- hardly anybody has noticed how Libertarians have put Republicans on the brink of losing the Senate. In both 1998 and 2000, a Republican candidate for Senate lost to a Democrat by a margin much less than the Libertarian's total vote.

    The most recent victim was Slade Gorton of Washington. In a final tally that took weeks to add up and confirm, he lost to Maria Cantwell by 2,228 votes. A Libertarian candidate, Jeff Jared, hauled in 64,734 votes. Two years earlier, Republican John Ensign lost to incumbent Democrat Harry Reid in Nevada by a measly 428 votes, in a race that saw Libertarian Michael Cloud draw 8,044 votes. If Ensign had won that race -- beating a man who is the second-ranking Senate Democrat, no less -- and another Republican had picked up the seat Ensign came back to win last year, there would be two more Republicans and two fewer Democrats in the chamber. Instead of a 50-50 split, Republicans would have a 52-48 majority. There would be no morbid Strom Thurmond death watch.

    The problem isn't just confined to the Senate. The GOP arguably would also control two more House seats if no Libertarians had run last fall. Rep. Steve Kuykendall of California lost re-election against Jane Harman by 4,452 votes; Libertarian candidate Daniel Sherma attracted 6,073 votes. In New Jersey, Democratic Rep. Rush Holt fended off Republican Dick Zimmer by 651 votes. Worth Winslow of the Libertarian Party attracted 1,225 votes.

    "Libertarians need to understand that they're nothing but spoilers," says Muth. "And Republicans need to learn how to earn their votes."

    Libertarian voters wouldn't necessarily support Republicans in the absence of an alternative. Many might not turn out at all. Others would choose another minor party, such as the Greens, in order to register disapproval with the two major parties. A few might even vote for Democrats. But in the main, Libertarians are freedom-loving, small-government advocates who would find a more natural home in the GOP than almost anywhere else. "Exit polling shows that we take twice as many votes from Republicans as from Democrats," says Libertarian Party spokesman George Getz.

    The proof may be found in the 1992 Georgia Senate race, in which no candidate won a majority. Republican Paul Coverdell led the pack with 49 percent, Democratic Sen. Wyche Fowler nipped at his heels with 48 percent, and Libertarian Jim Hudson took 3 percent. In a runoff between the two leaders, Coverdell prevailed 51 percent to 48 percent. Hudson had endorsed him, and Libertarians like to think that their flock accounted for Coverdell's 3-point jump in the runoff.

    That's a rare case of Libertarians helping a Republican -- but only after forcing a near-death experience. The Georgia runoff might easily have gone the other way.

    In this age of Senate power sharing and a razor-thin GOP House majority, Republicans can't ignore the Libertarians. If they do, it may cost them dearly.

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