Updated 6:57 PM ET May 1, 2001
By TOM RAUM, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush's decision to forge ahead with a missile defense system and replace a landmark 1972 arms-control treaty is bound to complicate relations with Russia. Even supporters agree he'll have to proceed carefully.
Moscow - already protected by a scaled-down version of such an anti-missile shield - views the program as an attempt by the United States to solidify its military dominance and to erase a pact that for three decades has helped to keep the nuclear peace.
This skepticism is shared by many U.S. European allies, who fear that Bush's policy will prompt both Russia and China to increase their nuclear arsenals.
"We urge President Bush to abstain from the National Missile Defense, just as we urge China, India and Pakistan to discontinue their nuclear arsenals," Swedish Foreign Minister Anna Lindh said Tuesday. Her country holds the rotating presidency of the 15-nation European Union.
Congressional conservatives cheered Bush's pledge, in a major defense speech, to move ahead on missile defense and to work to replace the landmark 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty with "a new framework."
"He's right on the mark," said Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Pa., a leading proponent of a robust missile defense network. "Russia is not our enemy. Our enemies are rogue states and terrorists and the possibility of accidental launches."
Still, Weldon, who heads a liaison group that meets with members of Russia's Parliament, said Bush will have a hard time persuading Russian leaders his plan doesn't threaten them. "If I were a Russian today, I wouldn't trust the United States on missile defense, either," said Weldon, suggesting years of mixed signals from Washington.
Bush, in recognition of the tough selling job ahead, said he would dispatch a high-level team to Moscow and other European capitals next week. He called European leaders with a heads-up on Monday, and phoned Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday.
"I wanted to assure him that my plans were in the best interests of our two countries, that we're going to consult with the Russians as well as our other friends and allies," Bush said. "I told him the Cold War is over, and that Russia was not our enemy. And I helped try to define the threats as realistically as I could, and that we needed to have defenses to meet those threats."
In a speech at the Pentagon's National Defense University, Bush said the ABM treaty "enshrines the past" by prohibiting national missile defenses. Bush also repeated his call for a reduction in the U.S. nuclear stockpile, although gave no figure.
The ABM treaty is viewed by supporters as a cornerstone of international arms control agreements.
U.S. abandonment would be "a major setback to arms control," said Spurgeon Keeny, president of the Arms Control Association. He said it could prod Moscow to renege on later pacts - and give China justification for increasing its nuclear arsenal.
The United States has roughly 7,200 strategic warheads, Moscow controls about 6,000.
Both Moscow and Washington under the 1992 START II treaty - still not fully ratified - agreed to reduce stockpiles to 3,500 or under. The two sides are committed to working out a START III treaty with even lower ceilings of 2,000 to 2,500.
"The broader question is how will (Bush's program) affect the future of the START II and START III, and this depends on our reaching some kind of accommodation with Russia," said Anthony Cordesman, a defense analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Ivan Eland, director of defense policy studies at the libertarian Cato Institute, said that Russia "is hurting for money" and might opt for trying to make its aging missiles more lethal, including reloading them with multiple-reentry warheads.
Any rush to deploy a still-unproven missile defense program could result in a flawed system that didn't work, Eland said. "Let's get it right. Otherwise, you have a hunk of metal sitting there doing nothing."
The ABM treaty actually permitted each side to devise a single, limited missile defense system - near a capital or near an ICBM launch site.
Russia built such a system to defend Moscow. It still exists and has been upgraded several times.
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